Survivor: Cagayan - Episode 2 Recap & Power Rankings

What a rainy episode we saw this past week! We got quite a bit of rain where I live as well, so I know the feeling. Well you know, without having to live outside and all. This weather was quite the contrast from what we saw last season in Survivor: Blood vs. Water. Such poor conditions have inspired several people to quit the game before, so give everyone credit for sticking it out... so far. I doubt we’ve seen the last of the rain.

I’m going to do something a bit different this week and combine the recap and power rankings into one big post. I’m not sure if this will be the preferred format from here on out, but we’ll see how it goes.

BRAWN

The Brawn tribe would be so peaceful and harmonious, if only Tony weren’t out there stirring the pot. Tony’s definitely made it a part of his strategy to feed lies to the other players, and Sarah has fallen for it, hook, line, and sinker. Sarah seems so set on the blue-blood, “Cops-R-Us” alliance that she can’t see past Tony’s lies, and this is a girl who interviews people on a daily basis and tries to discern lies as part of her every day job.

It’s unclear how loyal Tony plans on being to Sarah. He’s obviously feeding her lies, but he has yet to say anything about being willing to stab Sarah in the back later on in the game. The lies could just be his way of making sure Sarah is loyal to him and him only, which is a page straight out of the Russell Hantz playbook. It works as long as Sarah believes him enough to not go and confront the others about it, and it seems like she does. Tony’s strategy may not be a winning strategy, but you have to give him credit for playing hard on a tribe that we haven’t seen much strategic play from otherwise. He’s definitely a step ahead of the rest of the tribe.

Other than Tony and Sarah’s interactions, we didn’t get to see much from the Brawn tribe this episode. The rain really hit their camp hard and Lindsey sounded like she was almost about to quit, but it looks like this tribe is still intact, for now (we’ll try not to read too hard into the scenes from next episode).

BRAINS

As the tribe returned from tribal council, we got more details about Garrett’s elimination. Both Tasha and Kass made it seem like they were set on voting out J’Tia until Garrett dug his own grave at tribal council. Kass later made the point of eliminating Garrett because she didn’t want to compete against him later and “you can always get more rice”. While the first part of that makes a lot of sense, I’m not sure where Kass thinks this rice is going to come from, unless she actually believes in the “rice fairies” she mentioned in Episode 1.

Just when you thought this tribe was dead in the water, they come from behind to win immunity. But make no mistake about it; this tribe still has their backs against the wall. Despite their hilarious efforts to practice for the challenge, and the hilarious background music, they were terrible at the water portion of this challenge. But Spencer and Kass saved the tribe from going to their third straight tribal council on the maze, and we got to see one of the greatest immunity celebrations in recent memory.

It would have been very interesting if this tribe had to face tribal council again. We saw the three girls conspiring upon their return to camp that Spencer was the next to go. But would this be the smart move, especially for Kass? First of all, it’s clear that J’Tia is their weakest asset, both around camp and in challenges. But it’s hard to envision Tasha voting with Kass over J’Tia in a three-person scenario after Spencer leaves. Unless Kass knows Tasha would keep her, wouldn’t it be smarter for Kass to go back to Spencer and force the tie? This is assuming the four person tiebreaker is fire-making during the tribal stage of the game like in the individual stage of the game. We’ve never this unfold before, unless my memory is really failing me right now, so it’d be interesting to find out.

BEAUTY

While their camp was being battered by a monsoon, a new favorite for the title of Sole Survivor emerged. L.J. went to look for the idol in the spot he saw Morgan come from on Day 1, and he found it. While I haven’t the slightest idea how not one person on the Beauty tribe picked up on this, give L.J. a lot of credit for keeping his head in the game while everyone else was just worried about how wet they were getting. Unfortunately, L.J. wasn’t as lucky in the immunity challenge. While the Beauty tribe got out to an early lead, the circular maze proved too difficult for L.J. and Jeremiah, and they were sentenced to tribal council. L.J. even took some heat, albeit privately, from Morgan in one of CBS.com’s secret scenes.

But L.J. and Jeremiah were never targeted for the upcoming vote. As we broke down, last week, the Beauty tribe consisted of three pairs: L.J. & Jeremiah, Alexis & Jefra, and Brice & Morgan. It was no surprise that Brice and Morgan found themselves on the outside of the numbers with the other two pairs teaming together, but they thought they had a secret ally in Jeremiah to swing things to their side. Jeremiah found himself stuck in the middle of the two alliances, a very powerful position, but also a position that can earn you a few enemies if you don't play it correctly. In an effort to fully secure the numbers, Morgan approached Jefra with a plan to vote out Alexis, who they deemed to be the weakest. Jefra, who had become close with Alexis, was unwilling to vote out her closest ally, but she did offer up L.J.’s name instead. Morgan didn’t want to vote L.J. because of this challenge prowess, but this was a big mistake on her part. Being on the bottom, Morgan and Brice should have been willing to vote for anyone in order to gain control of the tribe, especially after the Brain tribe had already eliminated its two strongest members.

As it turned out, Morgan and Brice didn’t even need Jefra’s vote, after the majority alliance decided to split the vote in fear of the hidden immunity idol being played. I think this was a very poor decision on their part. L.J. had knew where the idol was (in his own possession), and probably agreed to it to throw people off his own scent. But in splitting the votes 2-2-2, it would only take one detractor, potentially Jeremiah in this case, to flip his vote for the majority alliance to get screwed. On top of this, the vote was going towards Brice, but throwing two votes Morgan’s way further alienates her from the majority alliance. In a potential tribe swap or merge (if she can survive that far), she now has no reason to stay loyal to the Beauty tribe that wrote her name down twice. She’ll do whatever is best for her.

The vote came down to Jeremiah’s decision. He could either stay with the majority alliance of four and vote out Brice, or join Brice and Morgan and vote out Alexis. Jeremiah ended up staying with his original alliance. I think this was the smart decision, on multiple levels. First of all, if he votes out Alexis, he now has made multiple enemies in Jefra and L.J. While Jeremiah didn’t know L.J. owned the hidden immunity idol, it’s much better to work with someone that has the idol than against him. But also, he still has a relationship with Morgan, who is essentially a free agent. If the two pairs decide to go after each other a round early, similar to what happened in the Brains’ second tribal council, Morgan becomes the swing vote. While Jeremiah did write her name down, he still has the best relationship with Morgan of anyone left on the tribe (as far as we’ve seen), and he can potentially use that to his advantage.

Now let’s see how this episode impacted the weekly power rankings:

1. L.J. (Beauty) | Last Week: 2 (+1)

Despite his slip up in this week’s immunity challenge, L.J. is in a great position. He’s in the majority alliance on the Beauty tribe, and he has a hidden immunity idol in his pocket that no one else knows about. As long as he can keep himself in a position of need for the rest of his tribe, he should be able to manage his target, which at this point is fairly huge.

2. TONY (Brawn) | Last Week: 5 (+3)

As mentioned above, Tony is a step ahead of everybody else on his tribe at this point in the game. Not only has he found the hidden immunity idol, but he’s also finding all the clues they win for it so nobody else is even aware of its location at all. He’s also worked himself into a blue-blood alliance with Sarah. As long as he doesn’t get caught in his lies, he’ll be around for a while. 

3. SARAH (Brawn) | Last Week: 1 (-2)

Sarah is an incredibly smart player, but she’s fallen into Tony’s trap. It almost seems like she wants a cops alliance so badly that she’s completely oblivious to the lies he’s telling her. Her position in the game is still fine, but it’ll be interesting to see how long her alliance with Tony will last.

4. WOO (Brawn) | Last Week: 4 (--)

Woo is in a very good spot at this point. He’s liked by everybody on his tribe, he’s a solid contributor in challenges, and he’s not on anybody’s chopping block. We’re still waiting for a Brawn tribal council to figure out where everyone truly stands.

5. JEREMIAH (Beauty) | Last Week: 6 (+1)

Jeremiah had the vote in his hands this week and he made the right decision. He’s got the majority of the power on the Beauty tribe at this point, but how long will that last? Whoever goes next for this tribe will dictate a lot.

6. ALEXIS (Beauty) | Last Week: 3 (-3)

Alexis saw her name come up a couple times this week and could’ve easily been blindsided had Jeremiah swung the other way. While splitting the vote wasn’t the smartest decision, it worked out and she’s in a good position still.

7. TRISH (Brawn) | Last Week: 7 (--)

We didn’t get to see much from Trish this week, so keeping her in the same spot seems natural. As we mentioned with Woo, it’s hard to know where everyone stands on the Brawn tribe until they face tribal council, which we may see soon.

8. TASHA (Brains) | Last Week: 8 (--)

At this point, Tasha is the leader of the Brains tribe. The other two leaders of the tribe were immediately eliminated, but Tasha should be able to fare a bit better. Hinting to Spencer that he was the next to go might not be the smartest move, however.

9. CLIFF (Brawn) | Last Week: 9 (--)

Cliff is doing a lot better than I expected to coming into the game. Not only is he not a target despite his money earned from playing in the NBA, he also helped lead the Brawn tribe to an immunity win by navigating the vertical maze with Woo.

10. JEFRA (Beauty) | Last Week: 11 (+1)

Jefra certainly had a rough week with the weather, but as the saying goes, “after every storm, the sun will smile” (at least for now). Jefra had a chance to switch her vote but chose to stay loyal to her alliance, which is now running things on the Beauty tribe.

11. KASS (Brains) | Last Week: 14 (+3)

Kass is in an interesting spot on the Brains tribe as it stands now. She can either team with Tasha and J’Tia to eliminate Spencer, or she can save Spencer in an attempt to gain control. She’s already proven she’s not afraid to flip if it benefits her, so we’ll see what she decides to do the next time the Brains head to tribal council.

12. SPENCER (Brains) | Last Week: 10 (-2)

Spencer may have just saved his skin with that come-from-behind victory in this week’s immunity challenge. He’s still got his back against the wall, but he’s got a little bit of breathing room after that win. We’ll find out if he’s the strategic mastermind he’s hyped himself up to be if he can work his way out of this precarious situation.

13. MORGAN (Beauty) | Last Week: 12 (-1)

Morgan saw her name come up twice at tribal council before her closest ally, Brice, was voted out. While Morgan is alone outside a majority alliance of four, she could easily work her way into a swing vote position, similar to Kass. She’s much smarter than most people would expect, we’ll see what she comes up with.

14. LINDSEY (Brawn) | Last Week: 15 (+1)

I honestly thought we were going to see Lindsey quit amidst the storm after mentioned that “she wished she hadn’t put herself through [Survivor].” She remained in the game, but she still doesn’t seem to be in a great spot on her tribe, especially with Tony pitting her friend Sarah against her.

15. J’TIA (Brains) | Last Week: 16 (+1)

I’m reserving this spot for J’Tia every week until she redeems herself. While she may be able to survive another vote if Tasha’s all-girls plan works out, she was still terrible in this week’s challenge and the tribe has even less rice to speak of. The fact that she’s even made it this far is pretty surprising.

Well there you have it. If you disagree with any of my analysis of the episode or any of my rankings, feel free to leave a comment below. Tomorrow should be another great episode. Thanks for reading.

Survivor: Cagayan Power Rankings - Episode 1

Another episode of Survivor: Cagayan is approaching very quickly. After a crazy first episode, a lot of movement has taken place in the power rankings. Just how far will J'Tia fall after pouring out her tribe's supply of rice? Will Tony's hidden immunity idol vault him into the upper echelon? Does anyone on the Brains tribe still have a chance to win the game? It's time to unveil the rankings:

1. SARAH (Brawn) | Last Week: 1 (--)

Nobody had a stronger first episode than Sarah. She wanted to be the leader of the Brawn tribe, and she backed it up by leading them to two immunity challenge victories. With other members of her tribe feuding amongst each other, Sarah should be able to keep the target off of her back for a while. The preseason number one pick is looking very strong right now.

2. L.J. (Beauty) | Last Week: 2 (--)

Like Sarah, L.J. led his tribe to two straight immunity wins, including an impressive come-from-behind effort on the second challenge's puzzle. What separates Sarah from L.J. is the size of each's target at this point. While Sarah can hide behind the bigger members of the Brawn tribe, L.J. is by far the biggest threat on the Beauty tribe. If he doesn't get himself into a solid alliance soon, he might be in trouble.

 

3. ALEXIS (Beauty) | Last Week: 3 (--)

Alexis had a relatively quiet first episode, which would lead to a hit in the rankings for most players. But for Alexis, who is trying to slide under the radar early on in the game, this means she's been doing exactly what she's supposed to. She even got a tweet from three-time Survivor player Coach, full of praise. We'll see if Alexis can live up to this hype.

4. WOO (Brawn) | Last Week: 8 (+4)

For what it's worth, I still don't fully buy into the Woo hype. But he's the only person flying under the radar on a Brawn tribe full of bigger personalities than his. He's very likeable and that alone should keep him out of everyone else's crosshairs for a couple votes. We'll see in the coming weeks just how much strategy he truly has.

5. TONY (Brawn) | Last Week: 12 (+7)

With an idol in his pocket, Tony probably should be higher than he is being ranked this week. I'm hesitant to move him any higher because of his lack of footing in the Brawn tribe's social dynamic. He had a big chance to make an alliance with Sarah and he blew it. If he gets a second chance with Sarah and makes the most of it, Tony could be in a great position.


 

6. JEREMIAH (Beauty) | Last Week: 9 (+3)

Jeremiah has worked himself into a solid position with the Beauty tribe. He has made friendships with everyone and has the option to go with whichever side is more appealing to him. But even in the first episode, we saw Jeremiah being wooed by the young ladies in his tribe. He has to avoid thinking with his heart and keep his head on straight.

7. TRISH (Brawn) | Last Week: 4 (-3)

After being voted the weakest member of her tribe not ten minutes into the game, Trish chose to give her tribe an extra bag of rice which helped solidify her spot with the group. But unfortunately for Trish, at this time she's on the outside of the numbers on the Brawn tribe. Hopefully for her she'll have enough time to swing the numbers in her favor.

8. TASHA (Brains) | Last Week: 5 (-3)

In the first episode, Tasha proved she wants to play the game, almost to a fault. While the vote ended up going her way, much in part to her good social game, the Brains tribe is a sinking ship. Choosing to save the volatile J'Tia could either prove to be the move that put Tasha in power or the move that ended her game. Does her tribe have any chance of winning at this point?

9. CLIFF (Brawn) | Last Week: 17 (+8)

There was no one who pleasantly surprised me more in the premiere episode than Cliff. His profession was outed, but he was so likeable around camp that it didn't even matter. He has a solid alliance member in Woo, but he also has Tony gunning for him and tribe supremacy with an idol in his pocket. We'll see if Cliff has what it takes to survive.

10. SPENCER (Brains) | Last Week: 10 (--)

Spencer was another surprise in the opening episode. While he mercilessly ripped multiple players in his confessionals similar to his pre-game interviews, he downplayed his arrogance around others and has actually come off as somewhat likeable to his tribemates. He was the only person on his tribe not to vote for Garrett at tribal council, but we've seen how quickly the numbers can chance on the Brains tribe before.

11. JEFRA (Beauty) | Last Week: 11 (--)

We didn't get to see a whole lot from Jefra in the first episode, so we don't really have anything to move her up or down for. She seems to have created a good friendship with Alexis and if she can get in with the guys on her tribe she will be able to stick around for awhile. But if Morgan and Brice are able to take over control of the tribe's numbers, she might be in trouble.

12. MORGAN (Beauty) | Last Week: 16 (+4)

After being selected as the weakest member of her tribe, I figured Morgan would be dead in the water. But her lie about the decision she was given as she got to camp was absolutely brilliant, and proved that she's a lot more than just a pretty face. In fact, girls who are able to lie well that easily actually scare me. We'll see if Morgan will be able to work her way into a majority alliance.

13. BRICE (Beauty) | Last Week: 18 (+5)

When Brice got to camp, he immediately picked up a scorned Morgan as a number, which proved he knows what he's doing. It'll be interesting to see in the coming weeks what Brice's motives are. If his goal is to eventually bring L.J. into his alliance, the Beauty tribe could end up running the game. But if his goal is to take out L.J. early on, the tribe may end up falling apart.

14. KASS (Brains) | Last Week: 13 (-1)

After being in the minority briefly, Kass worked her way into a swing-vote position and chose to eliminate Garrett over J'Tia. But was this the smart move? Garrett was by far the strongest member of the Brains tribe. It wasn't his fault they lost either challenge. If the Brains tribe continues to lose, Kass will eventually be eliminated for being a physical liability, and she'll regret voting out Garrett.

15. LINDSEY (Brawn) | Last Week: 14 (-1)

As of now, Lindsey is in the numbers on the Brawn tribe, along with Sarah, Woo, and Cliff. But it's never good to have your work ethic around camp questioned this early in the game. While Sarah reassured her that she was fine, it'll be interesting to see if Lindsey's work ethic and questionable attitude will end up being her undoing in this game.

16. J'TIA (Brains) | Last Week: 6 (-10)

When J'Tia dumped out the tribe's supply of rice, I'm sure everybody watching thought that she was done for. She essentially said, "since I'm being voted out, I want you to suffer. You can't eat." This is why you should never tell anybody that they're going home. In a way, it's almost karma that she's still in the game and has to suffer with the rest of her tribe. But how much longer can she last?





Now that we've seen all the players in action and this isn't based on pure speculation, there should be less jumpiness in the rankings over the coming weeks. If you disagree with any of the rankings, feel free to post a comment. Thanks for reading and here's to another good episode tonight!

Survivor: Cagayan - Episode 1 Recap

Wow. It's safe to say that Survivor: Cagayan is off to an exciting start after Wednesday's two hour premiere episode, in which we saw two blindsides, two hidden immunity idols found, one player voted out while in possession of one, and even a tribe's full supply of rice dumped into the fire! With all new players, this season is going to be so unpredictable from week to week, and we got a great example of that in the first episode. We're probably going to have to rename the Brains tribe to something more suitable, but we'll get to that later.

BRAWN

The season started off with all three tribes picking a leader. The Brawn tribe seemed to be the only tribe who talked it over and ended up having someone volunteer for the position. Sarah, Colin's Survivor Blog's preseason pick to win this season, became the leader of the Brawn tribe. Her first decision as leader came almost immediately after, when she chose Trish as the weakest of the tribe. Give credit to Trish; while the other tribes' weakest members took the title very poorly, Trish handled it very well. Trish was flown directly to camp, where she was given the choice of a second bag of rice for the tribe or a clue to a hidden immunity idol. While Trish could've taken the selfish route (and most people would having already been ostracized from their tribe), Trish elected to take the rice for the tribe which instantly boosted her credibility amongst her tribemates.

The Brawn's challenge success has been absolutely no surprise. They came into the season with the strongest roster on paper, and they've lived up to it, having won immunity twice. The Brains tribe has now eliminated their two strongest physical players, which should make Brawn's chances of winning every challenge even greater. They're obviously strong, they work together well, and they've proven they won't be stumped by puzzles. Perhaps Sarah was right when she says she was put on the wrong tribe, having smoked the Brains in back-to-back puzzles. Tony also mentioned that he was more Brains than Brawn. He is massive, so the statement may not be true, but not many people could argue that Tony isn't more Brains than half of the actual Brains tribe.

The social dynamics of the Brawn tribe aren't entirely clear. From what we know, there's people who really like Cliff (Sarah, Lindsey, and Woo), and then there's Tony. Tony's disliking of Cliff reminds me of Marty's rivalry with Jimmy Johnson in Survivor: Nicaragua. Tony also missed a big opportunity with Sarah, who was looking for a police officer bond with him. Tony refused to admit he was a police officer, and whether Sarah knows he's lying or not, Tony missed out on a big alliance opportunity. Trish was also painted on the bottom with Tony after her minor altercation with Lindsey over camp work ethic.

While those numbers may seem cut and dry, it got a lot more cloudy when Tony found the hidden immunity idol. On top of that, in a six person tribe, the numbers can change so quickly, as the Brains proved in both tribal councils this episode. I'd be very surprised if either Tony or Trish were the first person to go from the Brawn tribe. With the hidden immunity idol in his possession, Tony can protect himself if he catches wind that his name is coming up -- which he may have an easier time of finding out with his "Spy Shack"! But while there's potential chaos when the Brawn tribe goes to Tribal Council, there's likely going to be a lot of time for things to change between now and then as long as they keep winning.

BEAUTY

When the Beauty tribe was forced to select a leader, it seemed as though no one wanted the title. It was eventually settled on a reluctant L.J., who then chose Morgan as the tribe's weakest member. There isn't a choice L.J. could have made that wouldn't have upset someone, and I wouldn't be shocked if Morgan, the "hot girl with a grudge", didn't let this go for a long time. When Morgan got to camp, she chose to take the clue for the hidden immunity idol. While in search of the idol, her tribe members eventually arrived at camp, which could have ruined Morgan's chances to integrate with the group. Instead, she thought on her feet and got out of the situation. Morgan is definitely smarter than most people gave her credit for coming in.

Like the Brawn tribe, the dynamics of the Beauty tribe are far from concrete. As Brice pointed out early on, it seemed as though there was a lot of pairing off early on: L.J. & Jeremiah, Alexis & Jefra, and Brice & Morgan. We didn't get a whole lot of strategy talk from this tribe after that, but we did see a conversation between Jeremiah, Brice, and Morgan that could serve as a precursor to a majority alliance. It would've seemed more likely that Morgan and Brice were the two bottom members of the six, and perhaps Jeremiah was just covering himself. But Jeremiah seems to be willing to follow wherever a girl will lead him. So if Morgan keeps wearing her bowling socks, who knows what could happen.

This tribe is definitely performing better than the general consensus expected them too. They were the only tribe able to make fire without flint. They also won immunity in both challenges, including a first place finish in the first challenge of the season. L.J. claimed he was a "puzzle freak" before the game started, and he's lived up to that title so far. L.J.'s newest challenge is going to be downplaying how big of a threat he is to win the game. Someone like Brice could easily start up the "Take Out L.J." bandwagon, and in a game for one million dollars, it's hard to not target the biggest threats. Speaking of Brice, I have to give him a lot of credit. As I wrote in the preview of the Beauty tribe, Brice could go one of two ways. After one episode, it certainly looks like Brice is a lot closer towards the "power position" end than the "voted out very early" end. He's already outlasted the first boot prediction given to him by yours truly.

BRAINS

This tribe needs a new name immediately. It's rare in Survivor we get a group this dysfunctional, and this was supposed to be the smart tribe! The downfall of the "Brains" tribe began just moments after the game began. Seemingly against his will, David was voted the leader of the tribe. He then chose Garrett, by far the strongest member of the group, as the tribe's weakest member. He said he was making a decision "for the last two-thirds of the game", but it was only Day 1! To make matters worse, Garrett took the "weakest" label very poorly, and David had no chance of repairing that relationship. Once he arrived at camp, Garrett chose to take the clue for the hidden immunity idol and found it shortly after. Make a mental footnote of this, as we'll revisit Garrett's idol later.

The Brain tribe's wagon fell apart during the first challenge (literally), and they were destined to tribal council. The obvious vote would've been to eliminate J'Tia, who was the primary reason the tribe lost the challenge and devised a terrible idea for a shelter. Kass even told J'Tia straight to her face that she would be going home, but as we predicted, the rest of the Brains tribe wasn't interested in making the easy vote. Still harboring a grudge from Day 1, Garrett decided that he, J'Tia, Tasha, and Spencer should target David. The man who was elected leader by the same tribe members never saw it coming, and was eliminated 4-2. But this was just the start of a long episode for the Brain tribe. They built a big lead in the second immunity challenge, but J'Tia, the nuclear engineer who said she was the smartest person in the game, failed miserably on a puzzle similar to the one that cost Ozzy a million dollars in Survivor: South Pacific.

In a normal season of Survivor, Kass's vote with the minority would've clinched her as the next to go. But in a majority alliance of four consisting of two pairs, Kass immediately became the invaluable swing vote. Garrett and Spencer made an effort to assure Kass came to their side, and the vote seemed set for J'Tia. However, Garrett tried to prevent anything from changing by demanding the tribe sit in camp until tribal council, which greatly upset Tasha. After they eventually broke away from camp, Tasha and Kass contemplated voting for Garrett, who eventually broke up the conversation along with Spencer. Unfortunately, this left J'Tia alone in camp, where her crazy side took over. Channeling her inner-Brandon Hantz, she dumped the tribe's supply of rice into the fire.

On any normal tribe, this would have sealed J'Tia's fate, if it wasn't already sealed. But at tribal council, Garrett just couldn't keep himself from saying stupid things, and Kass ended up siding with Tasha and J'Tia, voting out Garrett 3-2. That's now two tribal councils for the Brains tribe, and they've eliminated their two strongest members. Meanwhile, J'Tia, who came up with the idea for one of the worst shelters in Survivor history, hardly helped to build said shelter, was the weakest link in two immunity challenges, and dumped the tribe's rice into the fire, is still in the game. Now you may ask, "why didn't Garrett play the hidden immunity idol?" Garrett, so sure of himself and his plans, didn't even bring the idol to tribal council. Are you kidding me?!? I don't care how safe you feel, why would you not bring it, just in case? You can't play it if you don't have it in your pocket.

If you think the losing is done for this tribe, you're probably very wrong. They're going to be physically over-matched in every single challenge. There's a very high chance this tribe ends up becoming this season's Matsing, which suffered four straight losses before its remaining two members were absorbed in Survivor: Philippines. While you would think J'Tia's elimination would be inevitable if they head to tribal council again, this tribe doesn't seem to like making smart decisions. Either way, it should be fun to watch.

If you have any feedback or questions, as always you can feel free to leave a comment below. Power rankings will be unveiled later this week, and there should be some major shake-up involved. Thanks for reading.

Survivor: Cagayan Power Rankings - Preseason

 

It's hard to believe we're less than five hours away from the premiere of Survivor: Cagayan. As promised, here are my official preseason power rankings. Please be mindful that this is not a predicted boot order. The players ranked highest on my power rankings are the players that I feel have the best chance to win the game, in order. As the list gets lower and lower, it turns into more of who I think will be voted out this upcoming episode, with the player ranked last being the person who I think is going to get voted out this week. There's no formula for any of my picks, it's all based off gut. Without further ado:

1. SARAH (Brawn)

Sarah is my pick to win this season. She's been placed on the Brawn tribe, but she'd fit in well with any of the three tribes because of how well rounded she is. Obviously, there are plenty of former contestants who have looked great on paper and drawn winner comparisons pre-game only to be knocked out early, but I feel confident that won't happen to Sarah. She has a lot of fight in her, and I think she's as good a bet as anybody to win the million dollars.

2. L.J. (Beauty)

L.J. is another very popular pick to win. I think he has the best chance among all the males. His tribe is going to rely on him physically, which will bide him time early in the game to form alliances and rise into a leadership position. Obviously, he's going to have a big target on his back later on in the game, leader or not. But as long as the Beauty tribe can avoid a big losing streak in challenges, L.J. looks to have a good chance of becoming the Sole Survivor.

3. ALEXIS (Beauty)

Alexis could shine this season in an under-the-radar type role. Given her bubbly personality and her background in psychology, she should be able to create good bonds with her fellow tribe members and sense when she needs to make a move. She's only 21 years old, but she's very intelligent and she has a chance to work her way into a position to win this season. In fact, she's been given the best Vegas odds to win this season by GoldDerby.com.

4. TRISH (Brawn)

Saying Trish is a determined woman is an understatement. She's been applying to get on Survivor for years, and now she's finally gotten her chance. Unlike most women who come on the show over 40 years old, Trish is very physically fit, and she's also on a Brawn tribe that won't need to vote out their weakest physical players. She's going to find an alliance early on in the game, and if the Brawn tribe can dominate challenges, she's got a good chance to ride the wave for a long time.

5. TASHA (Brains)

It's a bit surprising that we haven't seen a Brain on this list until now, but here's Tasha to change that. Despite being 37 years old, Tasha has a youthful energy about her that will be contagious around camp. She's far too likeable to get voted out early on. On top of this, she's very non-threatening, which could help big time on a Brains tribe that could see the big guns going after each other very early on.

6. J'TIA (Brains)

J'Tia, like Tasha, is probably older than a lot of people would expect at 31. I think these two will be a very quick alliance on the Brains tribe, and I think both have a good shot at winning the game. I put Tasha slightly above J'Tia because I think Tasha is more stable personality-wise, whereas J'Tia has a bit more volatility. With that said, don't be surprised if J'Tia lasts longer in the game.

7. GARRETT (Brains)

It pains me to do this, but I'm putting Garrett at 7. He's got all the tools it takes to win the game, but it's all going to come down to how he is perceived by the other members of the tribe. He's by far the biggest target among the Brains, which could hurt him if the Brains go to tribal council early. However, if he finds himself in an alliance early in the game, he could be protected long enough until he can do some damage in the game.

8. WOO (Brawn)

I've seen a lot of positive reviews, and even some winner predictions, for Woo, and I honestly just don't get it. I'm partially placing him this high only because I don't want too much backlash. For anyone who compares him to Malcolm, keep in mind that Malcolm was a super-fan of the game, whereas I don't think Woo understands a lick of strategy. He might be kept around for a while because of his likeability, but he's not winning this season.

9. JEREMIAH (Beauty)

Like Woo, Jeremiah best chance of lasting in this game is his likeability. I don't think he has any intentions of being a strategic mastermind, which suits him well. But it's hard to win Survivor without making a single winning move. It's also hard to win Survivor if your heart is more invested in finding a girlfriend, which Jeremiah seems to be fine with settling for.

10. SPENCER (Brains)

If this season were played in Spencer's mind, he'd win by a landslide. He's a super-fan of the game and I have no doubt he thinks he knows everything it takes to win this game. He has a good chance to make it far based on strategical knowledge alone, but his arrogance is going to get him voted out at some point.

11. JEFRA (Beauty)

Jefra is an outdoorsy pageant girl who has survived cervical cancer; I have no doubt that enduring the elements will not be a problem for her. But does she have what it takes to make moves to win the game, or is she just another Chelsea Meissner without her Kim? If Jefra goes invisible early on in the game, I think we'll have our answer.

12. TONY (Brawn)

Tony is a police officer, but he has no plans of playing the game with honor and integrity. Even if he lives up to his comparison of Russell Hantz, the most notorious villain in Survivor history, he won't be able to win the game, just like Russell. Whichever contestant can use Tony as a shield to the end is going to have a great shot at the million dollars.

13. KASS (Brains)

IQ-wise, I wouldn't be surprised if Kass is the smartest contestant this season. She's a great attorney and she thrives on people underestimating her. If she can survive being an early boot for her physical liabilities, she has a chance to go far. But I'm not sure she'll be able to outrun this target on a Brains tribe that is already lacking strength-wise.

14. LINDSEY (Brawn)

Lindsey's shelf-life in the game is all going to depend on whether or not she can secure her spot in an alliance early on. Personality wise, she's very different than most of her tribe members, and this could hurt her. Being on the Brawn tribe should buy her time before she has to face tribal council, but an outsider is always an easy boot early on in the game.

15. DAVID (Brains)

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see David make it far in the game, but I think it's far more likely that he proves not relatable to his fellow tribemates and gets booted early. He's got enough money anyways, I think he'll be fine.

16. MORGAN (Beauty)

I really want to see Morgan do well, but she's got a lot to prove going into the game. She could very easily be first-boot fodder, but if she can work well with the girls on her tribe and get the guys to fall for her charm, she could stick around. I think I speak for plenty of men around the world who would like to see her last as long as possible.

17. CLIFF (Brawn)

I don't think Cliff has any chance of winning the game, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me if he survived a few votes. He's very laid back, but he also knows more than anyone on this season what it takes for a team to thrive. Plus, he's on a tribe that is going to be favored in just about every challenge. I don't think he'll make it as far as fellow former athlete Jeff Kent did on Survivor: Philippines, but don't be surprised if he comes close to it.

18. BRICE (Beauty)

As I mentioned in my preview of the Beauty tribe, Brice is the biggest wild card this season has to offer. There are certainly scenarios where Brice becomes the figurehead of an alliance on the Beauty tribe, but I think the odds are far greater that he's a big target the first time they go to tribal council. Combine this with their weak odds of winning challenges, and you may just have the formula for a first boot.







I'm greatly looking forward to seeing how these rankings will play out throughout the season. If you disagree with my rankings (I'm sure you do), feel free to post your own in the comments below. Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy tonight's two-hour premiere episode of Survivor: Cagayan!