Survivor: Cagayan Preview - Brawn

If you just went off name value, you would expect the Brawn tribe (also known as Aparri) to be a dominant force in challenges and very combustible around camp. On paper, neither Brains nor Beauty can hold a candle to this tribe. They should run away with every challenge, but for some reason it never seems to work out the way it should in Survivor. If they do find their way to tribal council, this tribe could go up in flames quicker than you-know-what on a neighbor's doorstep, which is exactly what everyone wants to see. Let's take a deeper look at the members of the Brawn tribe:

I've been watching basketball for almost as long as I've been watching Survivor, and I remember watching Cliff Robinson play for the Pistons, Warriors, and Nets on the back-end of his career. I love when former professional athletes come on Survivor, because they're genuine fans of the show who want to prove they can tough it out. He's the first former NBA player to come on the show, and he seems like a very likeable guy. Unfortunately, if he is recognized instantly, "Uncle Cliffy" has a 0% chance of winning this game. It goes without saying that he doesn't need one million dollars; he is a former NBA All-Star who earned over fifty million dollars in his eighteen years in the NBA. Everybody in the game needs the money more than Cliff (with the exception of David Samson), and this is a game where people only need one reason to vote you out. On top of that, he's on a tribe that doesn't need him physically to compete in challenges. His best chance of sticking around is if nobody knows who he is, but at 6'10", how could somebody not put two and two together? Unfortunately, I don't see Cliff faring very well this season. The target on his back is huge, but I really hope he proves me wrong.

 

Lindsey is the only member of the Brawn tribe not to have an occupation that fits the bill, but there's no denying her physical fitness. Obviously, the first things that you notice when you look at Lindsey are her hair and her tattoos. Survivor is a game where people from different worlds are brought together to co-exist, and like Cliff, Lindsey is going to stand out because she looks different than everybody else. I go back and forth on how I think she will do in the game. I think she has a great energy about her, and if she can just sit back and let her likability kick in, she might slide under the radar while the bigger egos on the Brawn tribe gun for each other. But it's hard for me to imagine her making it deep into the game. My main reason for this is after reading her cast bio on CBS.com, it doesn't seem like she has much of a strategy going into the game. I question how much she truly knows about the game of Survivor, and whether or not she'll be able to position herself into a good spot in the game. Only time will tell.

I've seen a lot of people peg Sarah as one of the early favorites to win Survivor: Cagayan, and I don't blame them. She's strong, she's attractive, and she's intelligent, which makes her what Jeff Probst likes to call a "triple-threat". She claims she's very good at reading people, which is a huge asset to have in Survivor. I think she has a good strategy going into the game too; she wants to immediately pair off with someone and find two others from there, which gives them a quick majority in a six-person tribe. The biggest thing working against her is the past history of cops on this show. For whatever reason, most of them never seem to fare well, but Sarah wants to change that. In the "Meet the Castaways" video, Sarah points out Tony, a fellow police officer, as a potential ally which could also end up hurting her -- but I'll talk more about Tony later. Sarah definitely has what it takes to take it all the way and win this game, in a cast where strong favorites are hard to come by.

Every good cop needs a bad cop as a counteracting partner, and Tony is definitely that bad cop. He's made no bones about it, he's going to leave his honor and integrity at home. He even stated in his CBS.com cast bio that the former Survivor contestant he is most like is Russell Hantz, a.k.a. the most notorious villain in the show's history. The guy is HUGE; part of me is afraid to say anything bad about him for fear he might find me and rip me into pieces. Like Russell, Tony could wind up being the perfect person to take to the end for Sarah or whoever else takes the risk of aligning with him. But I see no way Tony can win this game. His personality is far too volatile and it's going to end up costing him at some point. However, we've seen similar explosive players, i.e. Phillip Sheppard, tucked under the wing of a savvy player and used as a shield, so don't be surprised if Tony overstays his welcome on the island.

Trish makes it no secret that she is a big fan of the show and has been applying for years. She has finally made it onto the show, and I think she has a good chance at doing well. She's not going to be the strongest person on the Brawn tribe by any means, but she will not be a liability in the challenges, which is the number one hindrance for women who come on this show over forty years old. She seems very likeable and I think that will help her to find an alliance quickly. If the Brawn tribe is going to be successful in this game, I think it will be in part because of Trish, who can act as a stabilizer to the other egos in the tribe. If she can make it to the merge, she'll have a great chance of finding her way to the end without a target on her back. If you're looking for a dark horse candidate to win this season, Trish is not a bad choice.

Woo is going to have no problem at all with the physical aspect of this game. He'll be great to have around camp as well as in challenges. But I seriously doubt Woo is ready for the strategical side of this game. Maybe I'm just rubbed the wrong way by his CBS.com cast bio, where he claims he is "strong, humble, grateful and respectful, much like Ozzy." WHAT?! In what ways was Ozzy humble? Make no mistake about it, Ozzy is the greatest challenge competitor in Survivor history. But humble, grateful and respectful? No. In Jeff Probst's cast assessment, he likens Woo to Fabio, which might be a fine comparison. If this game were split in two tribes divided by age like Survivor: Nicaragua was, Woo might stand a much better chance. But given this hand of cards, I don't see Woo as a big player this season. Unfortunately, the Brawn tribe has more than enough strength to go around, making any one guy on their tribe expendable. If he were placed on, say the Beauty tribe which clearly needs his physical strength, he probably would fare much better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Clearly, this tribe has more than enough physical strength to go around. With that said, it is almost impossible to win Survivor with just physical strength alone. It's pretty clear which players on this tribe know what they're doing, and they're the only ones on this tribe who have a chance of winning the game. Sarah and Trish are both strong contenders to take home the million dollars. They both seem to know the game well, but just as importantly, they seem to have the people skills that are so important to win this game. Look at the two most recent female winners, Denise Stapley from Survivor: Philippines and Kim Spradlin from Survivor: One World. These two took very different paths to get to the winner's circle, but one thing they had in common is a great social game. In today's Survivor game, it's almost impossible to win without it. As far as everyone else goes, who knows what could happen. I don't like any of the other four's chances of winning the game. At the same time, it's hard to envision this tribe going to tribal council too often, so they all have the potential to stick around for a while.

As always, feel free to leave any questions or feedback in the comments section below. Thanks for reading.