Survivor: Cagayan Power Rankings - Preseason

 

It's hard to believe we're less than five hours away from the premiere of Survivor: Cagayan. As promised, here are my official preseason power rankings. Please be mindful that this is not a predicted boot order. The players ranked highest on my power rankings are the players that I feel have the best chance to win the game, in order. As the list gets lower and lower, it turns into more of who I think will be voted out this upcoming episode, with the player ranked last being the person who I think is going to get voted out this week. There's no formula for any of my picks, it's all based off gut. Without further ado:

1. SARAH (Brawn)

Sarah is my pick to win this season. She's been placed on the Brawn tribe, but she'd fit in well with any of the three tribes because of how well rounded she is. Obviously, there are plenty of former contestants who have looked great on paper and drawn winner comparisons pre-game only to be knocked out early, but I feel confident that won't happen to Sarah. She has a lot of fight in her, and I think she's as good a bet as anybody to win the million dollars.

2. L.J. (Beauty)

L.J. is another very popular pick to win. I think he has the best chance among all the males. His tribe is going to rely on him physically, which will bide him time early in the game to form alliances and rise into a leadership position. Obviously, he's going to have a big target on his back later on in the game, leader or not. But as long as the Beauty tribe can avoid a big losing streak in challenges, L.J. looks to have a good chance of becoming the Sole Survivor.

3. ALEXIS (Beauty)

Alexis could shine this season in an under-the-radar type role. Given her bubbly personality and her background in psychology, she should be able to create good bonds with her fellow tribe members and sense when she needs to make a move. She's only 21 years old, but she's very intelligent and she has a chance to work her way into a position to win this season. In fact, she's been given the best Vegas odds to win this season by GoldDerby.com.

4. TRISH (Brawn)

Saying Trish is a determined woman is an understatement. She's been applying to get on Survivor for years, and now she's finally gotten her chance. Unlike most women who come on the show over 40 years old, Trish is very physically fit, and she's also on a Brawn tribe that won't need to vote out their weakest physical players. She's going to find an alliance early on in the game, and if the Brawn tribe can dominate challenges, she's got a good chance to ride the wave for a long time.

5. TASHA (Brains)

It's a bit surprising that we haven't seen a Brain on this list until now, but here's Tasha to change that. Despite being 37 years old, Tasha has a youthful energy about her that will be contagious around camp. She's far too likeable to get voted out early on. On top of this, she's very non-threatening, which could help big time on a Brains tribe that could see the big guns going after each other very early on.

6. J'TIA (Brains)

J'Tia, like Tasha, is probably older than a lot of people would expect at 31. I think these two will be a very quick alliance on the Brains tribe, and I think both have a good shot at winning the game. I put Tasha slightly above J'Tia because I think Tasha is more stable personality-wise, whereas J'Tia has a bit more volatility. With that said, don't be surprised if J'Tia lasts longer in the game.

7. GARRETT (Brains)

It pains me to do this, but I'm putting Garrett at 7. He's got all the tools it takes to win the game, but it's all going to come down to how he is perceived by the other members of the tribe. He's by far the biggest target among the Brains, which could hurt him if the Brains go to tribal council early. However, if he finds himself in an alliance early in the game, he could be protected long enough until he can do some damage in the game.

8. WOO (Brawn)

I've seen a lot of positive reviews, and even some winner predictions, for Woo, and I honestly just don't get it. I'm partially placing him this high only because I don't want too much backlash. For anyone who compares him to Malcolm, keep in mind that Malcolm was a super-fan of the game, whereas I don't think Woo understands a lick of strategy. He might be kept around for a while because of his likeability, but he's not winning this season.

9. JEREMIAH (Beauty)

Like Woo, Jeremiah best chance of lasting in this game is his likeability. I don't think he has any intentions of being a strategic mastermind, which suits him well. But it's hard to win Survivor without making a single winning move. It's also hard to win Survivor if your heart is more invested in finding a girlfriend, which Jeremiah seems to be fine with settling for.

10. SPENCER (Brains)

If this season were played in Spencer's mind, he'd win by a landslide. He's a super-fan of the game and I have no doubt he thinks he knows everything it takes to win this game. He has a good chance to make it far based on strategical knowledge alone, but his arrogance is going to get him voted out at some point.

11. JEFRA (Beauty)

Jefra is an outdoorsy pageant girl who has survived cervical cancer; I have no doubt that enduring the elements will not be a problem for her. But does she have what it takes to make moves to win the game, or is she just another Chelsea Meissner without her Kim? If Jefra goes invisible early on in the game, I think we'll have our answer.

12. TONY (Brawn)

Tony is a police officer, but he has no plans of playing the game with honor and integrity. Even if he lives up to his comparison of Russell Hantz, the most notorious villain in Survivor history, he won't be able to win the game, just like Russell. Whichever contestant can use Tony as a shield to the end is going to have a great shot at the million dollars.

13. KASS (Brains)

IQ-wise, I wouldn't be surprised if Kass is the smartest contestant this season. She's a great attorney and she thrives on people underestimating her. If she can survive being an early boot for her physical liabilities, she has a chance to go far. But I'm not sure she'll be able to outrun this target on a Brains tribe that is already lacking strength-wise.

14. LINDSEY (Brawn)

Lindsey's shelf-life in the game is all going to depend on whether or not she can secure her spot in an alliance early on. Personality wise, she's very different than most of her tribe members, and this could hurt her. Being on the Brawn tribe should buy her time before she has to face tribal council, but an outsider is always an easy boot early on in the game.

15. DAVID (Brains)

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see David make it far in the game, but I think it's far more likely that he proves not relatable to his fellow tribemates and gets booted early. He's got enough money anyways, I think he'll be fine.

16. MORGAN (Beauty)

I really want to see Morgan do well, but she's got a lot to prove going into the game. She could very easily be first-boot fodder, but if she can work well with the girls on her tribe and get the guys to fall for her charm, she could stick around. I think I speak for plenty of men around the world who would like to see her last as long as possible.

17. CLIFF (Brawn)

I don't think Cliff has any chance of winning the game, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me if he survived a few votes. He's very laid back, but he also knows more than anyone on this season what it takes for a team to thrive. Plus, he's on a tribe that is going to be favored in just about every challenge. I don't think he'll make it as far as fellow former athlete Jeff Kent did on Survivor: Philippines, but don't be surprised if he comes close to it.

18. BRICE (Beauty)

As I mentioned in my preview of the Beauty tribe, Brice is the biggest wild card this season has to offer. There are certainly scenarios where Brice becomes the figurehead of an alliance on the Beauty tribe, but I think the odds are far greater that he's a big target the first time they go to tribal council. Combine this with their weak odds of winning challenges, and you may just have the formula for a first boot.







I'm greatly looking forward to seeing how these rankings will play out throughout the season. If you disagree with my rankings (I'm sure you do), feel free to post your own in the comments below. Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy tonight's two-hour premiere episode of Survivor: Cagayan!

Survivor: Cagayan Preview - Beauty

Two tribes down, one to go! It’s time to wrap up our preview of Survivor: Cagayan with the Beauty tribe. Also known as the Solana tribe, the Beauty tribe is the only tribe of the three to be named after something that doesn’t really help you win Survivor at all. Has there ever been a winner who won because he/she was good looking? You can check me on that if I’m wrong. While there is no doubt that this tribe will have their fair share of ditzy moments on the island, don’t write off all of its tribe members just yet. Let’s take a closer look at the Beauty tribe:

The Beauty tribe has three girls in their early twenties on its roster, which could pose a big problem. As Alexis points out in her casting video (below), attractive women don’t tend to get along well with each other. However, of the three, I have no doubt that Alexis is the smartest. Given the makeup of this tribe, her intelligence alone makes her the least likely of the three girls to be voted out early. On top of this, she’s physically fit enough to hold her own in the challenges. I think she’s a pretty good bet to make the merge, but does she have what it takes to win the game? I have to be leery of any girl who compares herself to Parvati in her bio, considering Parvati’s flirtatious strategy has never been duplicated successfully by anyone outside of Parvati herself. But Alexis has made it clear that she’s coming to the island ready to play and willing to make big moves if necessary. I think she’s got a decent shot to win the million if her tribe doesn’t get annihilated in the early-going.

Brice is the biggest wild card of this entire season. He’s either going to be able to take control of the Beauty tribe early and sit in a power position, or he’s going to be voted out very early. If you’re looking for a reason not to like Brice, look no further than his self-made comparison in his CBS.com cast bio to the notorious Colton Cumbie, a former Survivor quitter (whether he did once or twice is still up for debate). That comparison is a big red flag -- Colton struggled greatly with both the elements and the social relationships. On the flip side, Colton was able to easily take control of the weak-minded players in Survivor: One World, and there are several members of the Beauty tribe who could be classified as weak-minded. We’ll never know where Colton would’ve finished had he not been “pulled from the game”, but Brice could find himself in a similar situation. If he can gain control of an alliance on the Beauty tribe, he could end up staying in the game for a long time, provided he can handle the environment. 

Before I get started, I have to ask: is it okay for Jefra to list “Miss Kentucky Teen USA” as her occupation when she’s 23 years old now? Shouldn’t she have gotten another job at this point? But anyways, don’t let Jefra’s looks and pageant girl status fool you. If Alexis is the smartest girl of the tribe, then Jefra is the most suited for survival. She is big into hunting and fishing, and this can’t help but draw comparisons to Chelsea Meissner, which Jefra even referenced in her CBS.com cast bio. Problem is, unless I am greatly underestimating the other members of this tribe, Jefra doesn’t have a Kim Spradlin to pair up with and lead her to the end. I think it’s very likely that Jefra finds herself in an alliance with the other guys in the tribe, and that’s a fine strategy. But I’m not sure if Jefra has what it takes to win this game from a strategy standpoint. However, if she does make it to the end, she will have quite the story, having overcome cervical cancer earlier in her life.

Jeremiah, like Jefra, is very country and he will have no problem surviving in the wilderness. Despite being a model, he seems to be a very down-to-earth guy, which will help him in this game for sure. In his CBS.com cast bio, he claims he is on Survivor to prove that a country boy can win the million dollars. But didn’t J.T. Thomas already prove that in Survivor: Tocantins? J.T. was a great player who went on to win the game unanimously, but don’t forget that he got a lot of help in that game from Stephen Fishbach, who took care of most of the strategy for that alliance. In fact, we saw in Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains that Stephen probably deserved more credit than he actually got after J.T. made one of the worst strategical moves in Survivor history in giving his Hidden Immunity Idol to Russell Hantz. In case you needed another reason to doubt Jeremiah's chances in this game, he states in his cast video (below) that he "could find the love of his life out [on Survivor]". Unless you strongly believe that Survivor is due for another Rob/Amber type duo, finding love and winning the game don't usually go hand-in-hand. Jeremiah claims he'll be able to separate the two if he has to, but I'm not so sure.

 

L.J. is the only guy on the entire season who I feel is a serious contender to win it all. Knowing my luck with predictions, that probably means he’ll be out early and some other guy who I’ve completely written off will find a way to win, but I digress. L.J. is an obvious favorite because, like Sarah from the Brawn tribe, he is a triple threat. He’s going to be absolutely relied on by his tribe physically, but based on what he’s said in his casting video (below), he seems to know how to handle this without putting a big target on his back. Obviously, avoiding that target will be his biggest obstacle in the early-going, but if he can manage to do so, he’s got a great shot of going deep. Like Alexis with Parvati, L.J. has compared himself to Boston Rob, which is probably a terrible comparison other than the fact that L.J. is actually from Boston. While L.J. might not belong on the Beauty tribe, make no mistake about it: this tribe needs L.J. as a leader, and L.J. needs this tribe for numbers later in the game. His fate in the game could be decided early on if the Beauty tribe heads to tribal council too many times.

Last but certainly not least, we have Morgan, a 21 year old ex-NFL cheerleader for the San Francisco 49ers. Like I was with my assessment of Garrett, I’m just going to be honest: I have a big crush on Morgan. Can you blame me? She is absolutely stunning. With that said, it pains me to think about her not making it far in the game, which definitely could be the case. Out of the three girls on the Beauty tribe, she is by far the least apt to survive in the wilderness. While she is physically fit, I can’t see her being a huge asset around camp or in challenges. There are really only two ways I can see her surviving in this game, and they both coincide with the two former contestants she compared herself too. She’ll either have to latch onto somebody for dear life like Natalie Tenerelli with Boston Rob in Survivor: Redemption Island, or she’ll have to flirt her way into a power position like Parvati. As I mentioned with Alexis, I hate comparisons to Parvati. I’m not saying Morgan has what it takes to emulate one of the greatest Survivor players of all-time, but it might be her only option to win the game. I hope she can find a way to avoid being voted out early. I really, really hope.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There is no doubt that the Beauty tribe is going to be the odds-on favorite to lose the first immunity challenge, and just about every other one afterwards. Brawn and Brains are both things that can help in various challenges, but unless they’re planning on introducing a pageant challenge this season, the Beauty tribe won’t have an advantage in anything. There are a few players on this tribe who have a chance of winning the game, but the one of the biggest keys for anybody on this tribe’s chances to win the game is simply to make sure their tribe doesn’t get decimated right out of the gate. This could prove to be much easier said than done. But if they can find a way to survive, or at least make it to a tribal shuffle, look for the members of the Beauty tribe (with perhaps the exception of L.J., who is a huge physical threat) to slide under the radar as the Brains and Brawns show down against each other for supremacy.

That concludes the three-part preview of Survivor: Cagayan. We’re just two days away from the two-hour season premiere and I can’t put into words how excited I am. I’m hoping to get one more post up before the season starts with power rankings of all 18 contestants. During Survivor: Blood vs. Water, I made power rankings every week and had a lot of fun doing it, so I’m looking forward to doing it again this season and actually publishing them online this time. As always, feedback and questions are always welcome in the comments section underneath. Thanks for reading.

Survivor: Cagayan Preview - Brains

Unfortunately, it was a very busy week for me personally with tests and work, and I didn't have time to get anything up on the blog. But that’s behind us, and we’re less than one week away from the season premiere of Survivor: Cagayan! It’s time to preview the Brains tribe. In the game of Survivor, brains have little to do with what you do for a living, and everything to do with how well you can maneuver your way to the end. On the Brains tribe (also known as the Luzon tribe), we have an MLB team president, a professional poker player, a nuclear engineer, an attorney, a chess expert, and an accountant. All of these professions clearly require brains in the real world, but which of these will be able to translate their smarts into Survivor? Let’s take a deeper look at the Brains tribe:

Not only do we have a former professional athlete this season, but we also have the President of the Miami Marlins, David Samson. Just a simple Google search will show you that David is worth nearly $200 million. $200 million!!! He’s been watching the show from the very first season, and says he decided one day that he was going to play Survivor. It must be nice to have that decision in your own hands. I think David could go either way in this game. He claims he is good at everything and great at nothing, which probably means he won’t be a liability in challenges or around camp. On top of that, I assume that as a fan since Survivor: Borneo, he has a pretty good understanding of the game. But will he be able to relate to the other players in this game? There are no other multi-millionaires that I know of on the Brains tribe. Poor social relationships have broken plenty of people in this game before. I think that’s going to be his biggest problem, but if he overcomes it, I think he could make it deep.

I’m going to be perfectly honest: I can’t stand Garrett. If you aren’t with me on this, read the guy's CBS.com cast bio; the guy is a douche. He’s the type of guy who has no problem telling you how great he thinks he is, how much he parties, how much time he spends in the gym, etc. On top of all this, he likens himself to the “perfect Survivor player” without having even played a day in the game. He spent over 2,000 hours preparing himself for Survivor, which I assume is his way of saying he watched every episode over a six-month period. On paper, Garrett has what it takes to win this game. He’s obviously very strong, in fact given the make-up of this tribe he’ll probably be relied on physically, and he is at least smart enough to be considered a “Brain”. But like David, how is he going to relate to the other people on his tribe, especially when he can’t seem to stop talking about himself? He just seems way too cocky to me, and like Jeff Probst said in his cast assessment video, I think he’ll come off as disingenuous. On the bright side, if he gets voted out, he can do all the partying he wants at Ponderosa.

J’Tia is the perfect example of the phrase “don’t judge a book by its cover”. On the surface, you might think J’Tia was meant to be on the Beauty tribe (she actually was even a model at one point in her life). But when you dig a little deeper and find out that J’Tia is a nuclear engineer, there’s no doubt she’s qualified to be on the Brain tribe. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see J’Tia make it far in this game. First of all, she was given a gift from casting in Tasha. I think there’s a good chance that those two will end up aligned with each other, and in a tribe of just six, a pair can be so dangerous. Essentially, to eliminate a pair in a tribe of six, every other player in the tribe has to be against that pair in order to get one of them out. We saw in Survivor: All-Stars just how dangerous this can be. On top of this, I think she has both the smarts and the social skills to work her way into a good position in this game. Picking her as a winner might be a bit of a stretch, but it’s definitely not something that can be completely ruled out.

In one of the season previews for Survivor: Cagayan, Kass makes it clear that she wants people to underestimate her. So I assume she’ll have no problem with me saying that she is clearly the weakest member of the Brains tribe physically, and perhaps the weakest in the entire game. Without a doubt, this is going to be her biggest hurdle in the game. If she ends up costing her tribe a challenge, she could lose her spot in the game for that alone. Her second biggest hurdle is that she is just plain boring. But if she can fly under the radar and survive a few rounds, she could very easily make it very deep. The key for players like Kass is just to make it to the merge, where she’ll be an asset for her physical shortcomings rather than a liability, and then make a move to win the game. I assume she knows this; otherwise I would question her placement on the Brain tribe in the first place.

If it weren’t for Garrett, I would’ve taken this time to talk about how snobby, delusional, and entitled Spencer is. But I dislike Garrett so much that I’m actually rooting for Spencer, who I also don’t like, to blindside Garrett and make him look like a fool in doing so. Spencer is the “super fan” of this season (he even titles himself as “the John Cochran that doesn’t suck” in his CBS.com cast bio). His knowledge of the game will likely be unmatched, but Spencer is far too arrogant and it will be his comeuppance in this game. I have no doubt he’ll have his fair share of witty moments and one-liners in his confessionals, and he may even be able to take control of an alliance. But he’s far too overconfident and I have no doubt he’s a blindside waiting to happen. Jeff Probst even went so far as to say that Spencer has a zero percent chance of winning this game. Probst may have been a little offended after Spencer insulted his man-crush in Cochran, but the number doesn’t seem that far off. Fortunately for Spencer, he won’t be targeted as the only “Brain” on his tribe like he might have in a normal season, and that could help him gain some footing in this game.

Tasha is one of two former NFL cheerleaders this season. After watching her pre-game interview (below), I assumed Tasha was somewhere between 24 and 29 years old. When I read her bio, I was shocked to find out she was 37 years old. She has a great youthful exuberance about her, and I think her spirit alone will allow her to stick around. She’s also been a fan of the game since the very first season. As I mentioned with J’Tia, casting did her a great favor by sticking her on a tribe with another African-American female. Assuming they don’t hate each other right off the bat, that’s an instant alliance for the two of them, and it should allow both of them to survive early votes if the Brains find their way to tribal council. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Tasha made it far in the game. But would other people let such a likeable person such as Tasha make it to the end? Kim Spradlin took this risk with Sabrina in Survivor: One World, but it’s rare.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you asked me before I saw the cast whether Brains, Brawn, or Beauty stood the best chance of winning Survivor, I would have answered Brains without hesitating. To be fair, it’s very rare that a winner of Survivor would only fit into one of these three categories. But after analyzing this tribe, I think the Brains may have the worst chance of bringing home the title of “Sole Survivor” among the three tribes. I don’t think they’re a physically weak tribe as a whole, and in challenges with three tribes all they have to do is not lose. I could imagine scenarios where every single one of them makes the merge, but I can also see scenarios where each of them gets voted out early. It’s hard for me to imagine any of them winning the game. Either J’Tia or Tasha are probably the best bets to do so, but who else really has a realistic shot?  If they come into the merge with most of their tribe intact, there will be huge targets on all of their backs as “Brains”. The best case scenario for a Brain to win this game might be to go into the merge with only two or three left, thus removing the targets off their backs, similar to how Malcolm and Denise found their way to the merge in Survivor: Philippines. From there, they can use their smarts to maneuver their way to the end.

As always, feel free to leave any questions or feedback in the comments section below. Thanks for reading. 

Survivor: Cagayan Preview - Brawn

If you just went off name value, you would expect the Brawn tribe (also known as Aparri) to be a dominant force in challenges and very combustible around camp. On paper, neither Brains nor Beauty can hold a candle to this tribe. They should run away with every challenge, but for some reason it never seems to work out the way it should in Survivor. If they do find their way to tribal council, this tribe could go up in flames quicker than you-know-what on a neighbor's doorstep, which is exactly what everyone wants to see. Let's take a deeper look at the members of the Brawn tribe:

I've been watching basketball for almost as long as I've been watching Survivor, and I remember watching Cliff Robinson play for the Pistons, Warriors, and Nets on the back-end of his career. I love when former professional athletes come on Survivor, because they're genuine fans of the show who want to prove they can tough it out. He's the first former NBA player to come on the show, and he seems like a very likeable guy. Unfortunately, if he is recognized instantly, "Uncle Cliffy" has a 0% chance of winning this game. It goes without saying that he doesn't need one million dollars; he is a former NBA All-Star who earned over fifty million dollars in his eighteen years in the NBA. Everybody in the game needs the money more than Cliff (with the exception of David Samson), and this is a game where people only need one reason to vote you out. On top of that, he's on a tribe that doesn't need him physically to compete in challenges. His best chance of sticking around is if nobody knows who he is, but at 6'10", how could somebody not put two and two together? Unfortunately, I don't see Cliff faring very well this season. The target on his back is huge, but I really hope he proves me wrong.

 

Lindsey is the only member of the Brawn tribe not to have an occupation that fits the bill, but there's no denying her physical fitness. Obviously, the first things that you notice when you look at Lindsey are her hair and her tattoos. Survivor is a game where people from different worlds are brought together to co-exist, and like Cliff, Lindsey is going to stand out because she looks different than everybody else. I go back and forth on how I think she will do in the game. I think she has a great energy about her, and if she can just sit back and let her likability kick in, she might slide under the radar while the bigger egos on the Brawn tribe gun for each other. But it's hard for me to imagine her making it deep into the game. My main reason for this is after reading her cast bio on CBS.com, it doesn't seem like she has much of a strategy going into the game. I question how much she truly knows about the game of Survivor, and whether or not she'll be able to position herself into a good spot in the game. Only time will tell.

I've seen a lot of people peg Sarah as one of the early favorites to win Survivor: Cagayan, and I don't blame them. She's strong, she's attractive, and she's intelligent, which makes her what Jeff Probst likes to call a "triple-threat". She claims she's very good at reading people, which is a huge asset to have in Survivor. I think she has a good strategy going into the game too; she wants to immediately pair off with someone and find two others from there, which gives them a quick majority in a six-person tribe. The biggest thing working against her is the past history of cops on this show. For whatever reason, most of them never seem to fare well, but Sarah wants to change that. In the "Meet the Castaways" video, Sarah points out Tony, a fellow police officer, as a potential ally which could also end up hurting her -- but I'll talk more about Tony later. Sarah definitely has what it takes to take it all the way and win this game, in a cast where strong favorites are hard to come by.

Every good cop needs a bad cop as a counteracting partner, and Tony is definitely that bad cop. He's made no bones about it, he's going to leave his honor and integrity at home. He even stated in his CBS.com cast bio that the former Survivor contestant he is most like is Russell Hantz, a.k.a. the most notorious villain in the show's history. The guy is HUGE; part of me is afraid to say anything bad about him for fear he might find me and rip me into pieces. Like Russell, Tony could wind up being the perfect person to take to the end for Sarah or whoever else takes the risk of aligning with him. But I see no way Tony can win this game. His personality is far too volatile and it's going to end up costing him at some point. However, we've seen similar explosive players, i.e. Phillip Sheppard, tucked under the wing of a savvy player and used as a shield, so don't be surprised if Tony overstays his welcome on the island.

Trish makes it no secret that she is a big fan of the show and has been applying for years. She has finally made it onto the show, and I think she has a good chance at doing well. She's not going to be the strongest person on the Brawn tribe by any means, but she will not be a liability in the challenges, which is the number one hindrance for women who come on this show over forty years old. She seems very likeable and I think that will help her to find an alliance quickly. If the Brawn tribe is going to be successful in this game, I think it will be in part because of Trish, who can act as a stabilizer to the other egos in the tribe. If she can make it to the merge, she'll have a great chance of finding her way to the end without a target on her back. If you're looking for a dark horse candidate to win this season, Trish is not a bad choice.

Woo is going to have no problem at all with the physical aspect of this game. He'll be great to have around camp as well as in challenges. But I seriously doubt Woo is ready for the strategical side of this game. Maybe I'm just rubbed the wrong way by his CBS.com cast bio, where he claims he is "strong, humble, grateful and respectful, much like Ozzy." WHAT?! In what ways was Ozzy humble? Make no mistake about it, Ozzy is the greatest challenge competitor in Survivor history. But humble, grateful and respectful? No. In Jeff Probst's cast assessment, he likens Woo to Fabio, which might be a fine comparison. If this game were split in two tribes divided by age like Survivor: Nicaragua was, Woo might stand a much better chance. But given this hand of cards, I don't see Woo as a big player this season. Unfortunately, the Brawn tribe has more than enough strength to go around, making any one guy on their tribe expendable. If he were placed on, say the Beauty tribe which clearly needs his physical strength, he probably would fare much better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Clearly, this tribe has more than enough physical strength to go around. With that said, it is almost impossible to win Survivor with just physical strength alone. It's pretty clear which players on this tribe know what they're doing, and they're the only ones on this tribe who have a chance of winning the game. Sarah and Trish are both strong contenders to take home the million dollars. They both seem to know the game well, but just as importantly, they seem to have the people skills that are so important to win this game. Look at the two most recent female winners, Denise Stapley from Survivor: Philippines and Kim Spradlin from Survivor: One World. These two took very different paths to get to the winner's circle, but one thing they had in common is a great social game. In today's Survivor game, it's almost impossible to win without it. As far as everyone else goes, who knows what could happen. I don't like any of the other four's chances of winning the game. At the same time, it's hard to envision this tribe going to tribal council too often, so they all have the potential to stick around for a while.

As always, feel free to leave any questions or feedback in the comments section below. Thanks for reading.