Survivor: Cagayan Preview - Beauty

Two tribes down, one to go! It’s time to wrap up our preview of Survivor: Cagayan with the Beauty tribe. Also known as the Solana tribe, the Beauty tribe is the only tribe of the three to be named after something that doesn’t really help you win Survivor at all. Has there ever been a winner who won because he/she was good looking? You can check me on that if I’m wrong. While there is no doubt that this tribe will have their fair share of ditzy moments on the island, don’t write off all of its tribe members just yet. Let’s take a closer look at the Beauty tribe:

The Beauty tribe has three girls in their early twenties on its roster, which could pose a big problem. As Alexis points out in her casting video (below), attractive women don’t tend to get along well with each other. However, of the three, I have no doubt that Alexis is the smartest. Given the makeup of this tribe, her intelligence alone makes her the least likely of the three girls to be voted out early. On top of this, she’s physically fit enough to hold her own in the challenges. I think she’s a pretty good bet to make the merge, but does she have what it takes to win the game? I have to be leery of any girl who compares herself to Parvati in her bio, considering Parvati’s flirtatious strategy has never been duplicated successfully by anyone outside of Parvati herself. But Alexis has made it clear that she’s coming to the island ready to play and willing to make big moves if necessary. I think she’s got a decent shot to win the million if her tribe doesn’t get annihilated in the early-going.

Brice is the biggest wild card of this entire season. He’s either going to be able to take control of the Beauty tribe early and sit in a power position, or he’s going to be voted out very early. If you’re looking for a reason not to like Brice, look no further than his self-made comparison in his CBS.com cast bio to the notorious Colton Cumbie, a former Survivor quitter (whether he did once or twice is still up for debate). That comparison is a big red flag -- Colton struggled greatly with both the elements and the social relationships. On the flip side, Colton was able to easily take control of the weak-minded players in Survivor: One World, and there are several members of the Beauty tribe who could be classified as weak-minded. We’ll never know where Colton would’ve finished had he not been “pulled from the game”, but Brice could find himself in a similar situation. If he can gain control of an alliance on the Beauty tribe, he could end up staying in the game for a long time, provided he can handle the environment. 

Before I get started, I have to ask: is it okay for Jefra to list “Miss Kentucky Teen USA” as her occupation when she’s 23 years old now? Shouldn’t she have gotten another job at this point? But anyways, don’t let Jefra’s looks and pageant girl status fool you. If Alexis is the smartest girl of the tribe, then Jefra is the most suited for survival. She is big into hunting and fishing, and this can’t help but draw comparisons to Chelsea Meissner, which Jefra even referenced in her CBS.com cast bio. Problem is, unless I am greatly underestimating the other members of this tribe, Jefra doesn’t have a Kim Spradlin to pair up with and lead her to the end. I think it’s very likely that Jefra finds herself in an alliance with the other guys in the tribe, and that’s a fine strategy. But I’m not sure if Jefra has what it takes to win this game from a strategy standpoint. However, if she does make it to the end, she will have quite the story, having overcome cervical cancer earlier in her life.

Jeremiah, like Jefra, is very country and he will have no problem surviving in the wilderness. Despite being a model, he seems to be a very down-to-earth guy, which will help him in this game for sure. In his CBS.com cast bio, he claims he is on Survivor to prove that a country boy can win the million dollars. But didn’t J.T. Thomas already prove that in Survivor: Tocantins? J.T. was a great player who went on to win the game unanimously, but don’t forget that he got a lot of help in that game from Stephen Fishbach, who took care of most of the strategy for that alliance. In fact, we saw in Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains that Stephen probably deserved more credit than he actually got after J.T. made one of the worst strategical moves in Survivor history in giving his Hidden Immunity Idol to Russell Hantz. In case you needed another reason to doubt Jeremiah's chances in this game, he states in his cast video (below) that he "could find the love of his life out [on Survivor]". Unless you strongly believe that Survivor is due for another Rob/Amber type duo, finding love and winning the game don't usually go hand-in-hand. Jeremiah claims he'll be able to separate the two if he has to, but I'm not so sure.

 

L.J. is the only guy on the entire season who I feel is a serious contender to win it all. Knowing my luck with predictions, that probably means he’ll be out early and some other guy who I’ve completely written off will find a way to win, but I digress. L.J. is an obvious favorite because, like Sarah from the Brawn tribe, he is a triple threat. He’s going to be absolutely relied on by his tribe physically, but based on what he’s said in his casting video (below), he seems to know how to handle this without putting a big target on his back. Obviously, avoiding that target will be his biggest obstacle in the early-going, but if he can manage to do so, he’s got a great shot of going deep. Like Alexis with Parvati, L.J. has compared himself to Boston Rob, which is probably a terrible comparison other than the fact that L.J. is actually from Boston. While L.J. might not belong on the Beauty tribe, make no mistake about it: this tribe needs L.J. as a leader, and L.J. needs this tribe for numbers later in the game. His fate in the game could be decided early on if the Beauty tribe heads to tribal council too many times.

Last but certainly not least, we have Morgan, a 21 year old ex-NFL cheerleader for the San Francisco 49ers. Like I was with my assessment of Garrett, I’m just going to be honest: I have a big crush on Morgan. Can you blame me? She is absolutely stunning. With that said, it pains me to think about her not making it far in the game, which definitely could be the case. Out of the three girls on the Beauty tribe, she is by far the least apt to survive in the wilderness. While she is physically fit, I can’t see her being a huge asset around camp or in challenges. There are really only two ways I can see her surviving in this game, and they both coincide with the two former contestants she compared herself too. She’ll either have to latch onto somebody for dear life like Natalie Tenerelli with Boston Rob in Survivor: Redemption Island, or she’ll have to flirt her way into a power position like Parvati. As I mentioned with Alexis, I hate comparisons to Parvati. I’m not saying Morgan has what it takes to emulate one of the greatest Survivor players of all-time, but it might be her only option to win the game. I hope she can find a way to avoid being voted out early. I really, really hope.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There is no doubt that the Beauty tribe is going to be the odds-on favorite to lose the first immunity challenge, and just about every other one afterwards. Brawn and Brains are both things that can help in various challenges, but unless they’re planning on introducing a pageant challenge this season, the Beauty tribe won’t have an advantage in anything. There are a few players on this tribe who have a chance of winning the game, but the one of the biggest keys for anybody on this tribe’s chances to win the game is simply to make sure their tribe doesn’t get decimated right out of the gate. This could prove to be much easier said than done. But if they can find a way to survive, or at least make it to a tribal shuffle, look for the members of the Beauty tribe (with perhaps the exception of L.J., who is a huge physical threat) to slide under the radar as the Brains and Brawns show down against each other for supremacy.

That concludes the three-part preview of Survivor: Cagayan. We’re just two days away from the two-hour season premiere and I can’t put into words how excited I am. I’m hoping to get one more post up before the season starts with power rankings of all 18 contestants. During Survivor: Blood vs. Water, I made power rankings every week and had a lot of fun doing it, so I’m looking forward to doing it again this season and actually publishing them online this time. As always, feedback and questions are always welcome in the comments section underneath. Thanks for reading.