It's hard to believe we're less than five hours away from the premiere of Survivor: Cagayan. As promised, here are my official preseason power rankings. Please be mindful that this is not a predicted boot order. The players ranked highest on my power rankings are the players that I feel have the best chance to win the game, in order. As the list gets lower and lower, it turns into more of who I think will be voted out this upcoming episode, with the player ranked last being the person who I think is going to get voted out this week. There's no formula for any of my picks, it's all based off gut. Without further ado:
1. SARAH (Brawn)
Sarah is my pick to win this season. She's been placed on the Brawn tribe, but she'd fit in well with any of the three tribes because of how well rounded she is. Obviously, there are plenty of former contestants who have looked great on paper and drawn winner comparisons pre-game only to be knocked out early, but I feel confident that won't happen to Sarah. She has a lot of fight in her, and I think she's as good a bet as anybody to win the million dollars.
2. L.J. (Beauty)
L.J. is another very popular pick to win. I think he has the best chance among all the males. His tribe is going to rely on him physically, which will bide him time early in the game to form alliances and rise into a leadership position. Obviously, he's going to have a big target on his back later on in the game, leader or not. But as long as the Beauty tribe can avoid a big losing streak in challenges, L.J. looks to have a good chance of becoming the Sole Survivor.
3. ALEXIS (Beauty)
Alexis could shine this season in an under-the-radar type role. Given her bubbly personality and her background in psychology, she should be able to create good bonds with her fellow tribe members and sense when she needs to make a move. She's only 21 years old, but she's very intelligent and she has a chance to work her way into a position to win this season. In fact, she's been given the best Vegas odds to win this season by GoldDerby.com.
4. TRISH (Brawn)
Saying Trish is a determined woman is an understatement. She's been applying to get on Survivor for years, and now she's finally gotten her chance. Unlike most women who come on the show over 40 years old, Trish is very physically fit, and she's also on a Brawn tribe that won't need to vote out their weakest physical players. She's going to find an alliance early on in the game, and if the Brawn tribe can dominate challenges, she's got a good chance to ride the wave for a long time.
5. TASHA (Brains)
It's a bit surprising that we haven't seen a Brain on this list until now, but here's Tasha to change that. Despite being 37 years old, Tasha has a youthful energy about her that will be contagious around camp. She's far too likeable to get voted out early on. On top of this, she's very non-threatening, which could help big time on a Brains tribe that could see the big guns going after each other very early on.
6. J'TIA (Brains)
J'Tia, like Tasha, is probably older than a lot of people would expect at 31. I think these two will be a very quick alliance on the Brains tribe, and I think both have a good shot at winning the game. I put Tasha slightly above J'Tia because I think Tasha is more stable personality-wise, whereas J'Tia has a bit more volatility. With that said, don't be surprised if J'Tia lasts longer in the game.
7. GARRETT (Brains)
It pains me to do this, but I'm putting Garrett at 7. He's got all the tools it takes to win the game, but it's all going to come down to how he is perceived by the other members of the tribe. He's by far the biggest target among the Brains, which could hurt him if the Brains go to tribal council early. However, if he finds himself in an alliance early in the game, he could be protected long enough until he can do some damage in the game.
8. WOO (Brawn)
I've seen a lot of positive reviews, and even some winner predictions, for Woo, and I honestly just don't get it. I'm partially placing him this high only because I don't want too much backlash. For anyone who compares him to Malcolm, keep in mind that Malcolm was a super-fan of the game, whereas I don't think Woo understands a lick of strategy. He might be kept around for a while because of his likeability, but he's not winning this season.
9. JEREMIAH (Beauty)
Like Woo, Jeremiah best chance of lasting in this game is his likeability. I don't think he has any intentions of being a strategic mastermind, which suits him well. But it's hard to win Survivor without making a single winning move. It's also hard to win Survivor if your heart is more invested in finding a girlfriend, which Jeremiah seems to be fine with settling for.
10. SPENCER (Brains)
If this season were played in Spencer's mind, he'd win by a landslide. He's a super-fan of the game and I have no doubt he thinks he knows everything it takes to win this game. He has a good chance to make it far based on strategical knowledge alone, but his arrogance is going to get him voted out at some point.
11. JEFRA (Beauty)
Jefra is an outdoorsy pageant girl who has survived cervical cancer; I have no doubt that enduring the elements will not be a problem for her. But does she have what it takes to make moves to win the game, or is she just another Chelsea Meissner without her Kim? If Jefra goes invisible early on in the game, I think we'll have our answer.
12. TONY (Brawn)
Tony is a police officer, but he has no plans of playing the game with honor and integrity. Even if he lives up to his comparison of Russell Hantz, the most notorious villain in Survivor history, he won't be able to win the game, just like Russell. Whichever contestant can use Tony as a shield to the end is going to have a great shot at the million dollars.
13. KASS (Brains)
IQ-wise, I wouldn't be surprised if Kass is the smartest contestant this season. She's a great attorney and she thrives on people underestimating her. If she can survive being an early boot for her physical liabilities, she has a chance to go far. But I'm not sure she'll be able to outrun this target on a Brains tribe that is already lacking strength-wise.
14. LINDSEY (Brawn)
Lindsey's shelf-life in the game is all going to depend on whether or not she can secure her spot in an alliance early on. Personality wise, she's very different than most of her tribe members, and this could hurt her. Being on the Brawn tribe should buy her time before she has to face tribal council, but an outsider is always an easy boot early on in the game.
15. DAVID (Brains)
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see David make it far in the game, but I think it's far more likely that he proves not relatable to his fellow tribemates and gets booted early. He's got enough money anyways, I think he'll be fine.
16. MORGAN (Beauty)
I really want to see Morgan do well, but she's got a lot to prove going into the game. She could very easily be first-boot fodder, but if she can work well with the girls on her tribe and get the guys to fall for her charm, she could stick around. I think I speak for plenty of men around the world who would like to see her last as long as possible.
17. CLIFF (Brawn)
I don't think Cliff has any chance of winning the game, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me if he survived a few votes. He's very laid back, but he also knows more than anyone on this season what it takes for a team to thrive. Plus, he's on a tribe that is going to be favored in just about every challenge. I don't think he'll make it as far as fellow former athlete Jeff Kent did on Survivor: Philippines, but don't be surprised if he comes close to it.
18. BRICE (Beauty)
As I mentioned in my preview of the Beauty tribe, Brice is the biggest wild card this season has to offer. There are certainly scenarios where Brice becomes the figurehead of an alliance on the Beauty tribe, but I think the odds are far greater that he's a big target the first time they go to tribal council. Combine this with their weak odds of winning challenges, and you may just have the formula for a first boot.
I'm greatly looking forward to seeing how these rankings will play out throughout the season. If you disagree with my rankings (I'm sure you do), feel free to post your own in the comments below. Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy tonight's two-hour premiere episode of Survivor: Cagayan!
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